Media headlines are dominated by the prospect of regional water wars. Clearly, climate change poses several threats to human security. In particular, hydro-climatic hazards such as droughts and floods have a considerable capacity to exacerbate social tensions, intra- and inter-state conflict.
Still, cooperation often trumps conflict. There are surprisingly few peer-reviewed studies rigorously addressing links between climate change, hydrological systems, conflict and security. CLICO will fill this gap in knowledge over the social dimensions of climate change, by looking whether hydro-climatic hazards intensify social tensions and conflicts in the Mediterranean, Middle East and Sahel, or if they provide a catalyst for cooperation and peace.
The project will examine why some countries and communities are more vulnerable to droughts, floods and related conflict, and what types of policies and institutions are necessary to ensure adaptation, security and peace in the face of global and regional hydro-climatic change. The project will mobilize 13 research teams from Europe, North Africa, Sahel and the Middle East and will bring together for the first time some of the world’s leading researchers in water resource, vulnerability, and peace and security studies.
Ten cases of hydro-conflicts will be studied ranging from Niger, Sudan, the Jordan and Nile basins to Cyprus, Italy and the Sinai desert. A large dataset – the first of its kind – of hydro-conflicts in the Mediterranean, Middle East and Sahel will be regressed against climatic, hydrological and socio-economic variables. Policies and institutions at the national, international and transboundary levels will be investigated and their ability to face climate change and ensure human security will be assessed. Project results will be synthesised in a report that will identify potential security hotspots in the region and provide fresh policy ideas for promoting peace and security under changing hydro-climatic conditions.
Publications and Downloads
• The impact of climate change on water use in the tourism sector of Cyprus by Katerina Charalambous, Adriana Bruggeman and Manfred A. Lange [Report, January 2012]
• Policies for improving water security, the case of Cyprus by Katerina Charalambous, Adriana Bruggeman and Manfred A. Lange [Report, March 2011]
• Climate outlooks for CLICO case study sites by Adriana Bruggeman, Panos Hadjinicolaou, Manfred Lange [Report, Sep 2010]
• Vulnerability of rural communities to water scarcity and climate change by Holly Deems, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, and Adriana Bruggeman [Presentation, Expert Meeting, EEWRC, Jun 2010]
• Vulnerability Index by Holly Deems, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, and Adriana Bruggeman [Handout, Expert Meeting, EEWRC, Jun 2010]
• A socio-political analysis of visions and decisions on Water Management in the Republic of Cyprus by Panagiota Kotsila, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona [poster, Erasmus Summer School on Environmental Conflicts and Justice, Barcelona, Jul 2010]
• Vulnerability of rural communities in the Mediterranean region to climate change and water scarcity: The case of Cyprus by Holly Jean Deems, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona [MSc thesis, Sep 2010]
• The socio-environmental history of water development and management in the Republic of Cyprus by Panagiota Kotsila, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona [MSc thesis, Sep 2010]
• Climate change, hydro-conflicts and human security: achievements of and gaps in current policies by Ecologic [Policy Brief, Apr 2010]
• Climate change, hydro-conflicts and human security: achievements of and gaps in current policies by Ecologic [Policy Brief with Greek summary, Apr 2010]
• Dams of Cyprus and their environment by S. Evangelidou [Report, Sep 2011]
• Effect of climate variability and climate change on crop production and water resources in Cyprus by Adriana Bruggeman(1), Christos Zoumides(2), Stelios Pashiardis(3), Panos Hadjinicolaou(1), Manfred A. Lange(1) and Theodoros Zachariadis(2). (1) The Cyprus Institute, (2) Cyprus University of Technology, (3) Cyprus Meteorological Service [Study for the Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Environment, led by the Agricultural Research Institute of Cyprus, June 2011]
• Temporal and spatial analysis of blue and green water demand for crop production in Cyprus, by Christos Zoumides, Cyprus University of Technology and Adriana Bruggeman [Report for the Water Framework Directive Public Consultation, November 2010]
• Urban water balance and management a case study in Limassol, Cyprus by Katerina Charalambous, Queen’s University, Belfast [MSc thesis, Sep 2010]
Tel.: +357 22208620
Prof. Manfred A. Lange
Tel.: +357 22208621