Colloquium: Department of Meteorology: Real Time Data and WRF Data Assimilation. The New Era in Weather Forecasting

Abstract 
Real or near real time data in the field of the science of Meteorology and specifically in weather forecasting is essential. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) products need not only a good processing machine and a reliable algorithm to represent the physical processes of the atmosphere (i.e. the interactions between earth and sea, earth and atmosphere), but also timely observational data of good quality, and good “surface density”.

The Department of Meteorology (DoM) is working very closely with Cyprus Institute (CyI) in order to add value to DoM’s operational NWP, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), running on CyI’ s Cy-Tera High Performance Computing Facility, twice daily since mid-2013. The output of the NWP has proven to be of good quality and constitutes an important operational forecasting tool for the DoM’s Weather Forecasting obligations.

In relation DoM maintains a dense observation network including 28 automatic weather stations, able to provide near real time data, a radiosonde station, and a weather radar network, operating at two sites, at Larnaka and Paphos. The amount of near real time data is of very good quality and of enormous amount.

Until today WRF is initialized and run with initial and boundary conditions received from NCEP NCAR (GFS model). The attempt to feed WRF with real time or near real time data is at present very optimistic, but the comparison of the results of a particular time frame of the previous model run with weather radar data of that particular time is the first step of the forecaster’s daily routine to evaluate the forecasting ability of the current model run. This first step comprises the usage of WRF as a research tool and it will give the opportunity to scientists to explore the capabilities of the model but also to design the steps towards the full integration and assimilation of real time data both from AWS stations, radiosonde and weather radar data into WRF. Another task is to produce ensemble forecasts initially with 10 members. The data are available, the challenge is there, and the enthusiasm among the involved scientists is also there.

It is a strong belief of DoM that through the technical cooperation with CyI the challenges are achievable, leading to the mutual benefit of our organisations.

About the Speaker
Dr. Kleanthis Nicolaides is the Director of the Department of Meteorology of the Ministry of Agriculture Rural Development and Environment. He holds a BSc in Physics, from the School of Physics and Mathematics, of the Aristotelian University of Thessaloniki Greece, an MBA from the School Management, of the University of Cyprus and a PhD in the field of Synoptic Climatology from the Section of Geology, of the School of Physics and Mathematics, of the Aristotelian University of Thessaloniki Greece.

He is working in the Department of Meteorology since 1988, having served both as a Technical Assistant and as a Meteorological Officer. Since August 2016 he is the Director of the Department of Meteorology.

His field of expertise is Synoptic Meteorology, Synoptic Climatology and Severe Weather, where is most of his published research. He involves with scientific research programs as a researcher.

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