Climate Change Threatens Global Cattle Farming, New Cyprus Institute Study Finds

Climate change is rapidly increasing thermal stress in livestock, posing a serious and growing threat to global cattle farming, according to a new study led by researchers at The Cyprus Institute (CyI), with contributions from the Cyprus Agricultural Research Institute. The findings show that without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the impacts on cattle productivity and survival could become evident as early as 2050 and intensify dramatically by the end of the century.

 

Thermal stress occurs when rising temperatures combined with high humidity exceed animals’ physiological tolerance thresholds. In cattle, such conditions can lead to weight loss, fertility problems, and significant reductions in both the quantity and quality of milk production. In extreme cases, prolonged exposure to severe heat stress can be fatal. Because cattle tolerance thresholds are comparable to, or higher than, those of other livestock, the study suggests that goats, sheep, pigs, and poultry may face similar or even greater risks under future climate conditions.

 

The study, published in the scientific journal PLOS Climate, uses advanced machine-learning techniques to more accurately estimate future exposure of cattle to thermal stress under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. By integrating projections of temperature and humidity, the researchers provide a clearer and more detailed picture of how climate change is expected to affect livestock systems worldwide.

 

Results indicate that periods of severe thermal stress, which were extremely rare prior to 2020, are projected to become increasingly common in the coming decades. Under high-emission scenarios, such events could increase up to twelve-fold by the end of the century, placing unprecedented pressure on livestock farming and dairy production systems.

“Our results indicate that these trends could have serious consequences for livestock farming, dairy production, and broader food production systems globally, with direct implications for food security and agricultural economies,” said Dr. Marco Neira, Associate Research Scientist at CyI’s Climate and Atmosphere Research Center and lead author of the study. “The research highlights that both reducing emissions and adapting livestock systems to climate change are now global priorities.”

 

The findings are particularly relevant for Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean, where heatwaves are already becoming more frequent, longer, and more intense. While short-term adaptation measures such as improved shading, ventilation, and cooling systems can help reduce immediate risks, the researchers stress the importance of long-term, strategic solutions.

 

Among the most promising approaches are genetic improvement programmes aimed at breeding heat-tolerant animals. Such programmes are considered cost-effective and scalable, and could play a critical role in strengthening the resilience of the farming sector while supporting the continued production of high-value products, including halloumi cheese, which is closely linked to Cyprus’ agricultural identity.

 

This research reinforces The Cyprus Institute’s role as a leading international centre for climate science and impact-driven research, providing evidence-based insights that support sustainable agriculture, climate adaptation, and food security in Cyprus and beyond.