New research, which appeared in the reputable academic journal Global Environmental Change, reveals that heat waves and droughts have been particularly adverse for low-income households. In the last twenty years, poor households in Europe lost 2.7% more of their income than the rich due to heat and drought. This is because lower-income households are more likely to live in areas highly exposed to heat and droughts and have less capacity to finance energy-efficiency investments and protect their property from natural hazards.
Jessie Schleypen, a Ph.D. candidate at the Humboldt University of Berlin and lead author of this study, said: “Compound heat and drought events have a larger negative impact than when the two events happen independent of each other. We find evidence of this in the impact on household incomes, where the poorest households, who are faced with unequal costs in obtaining basic services and financial resources to cope and recover, are affected the most. With every income shock, poor households have fewer resources and fewer options to avoid future impacts, thereby turning short-term impacts into long-term effects and pushing them into a poverty trap.”
According to this study, Cyprus has been hit slightly more strongly than the EU average: Income losses up to now have been about 5% for the total population and 9% for the poorest households. But impacts in Cyprus are expected to be much worse than the EU average in the future, due to more frequent occurrences of compound dry-and-hot events as global warming levels increase.
If global warming remains at 2°C higher than preindustrial levels – which is only possible with ambitious global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions – Cypriot households at-risk-of-poverty may increase by 10%, i.e. to 25% compared to today’s level of 14,9%. However, with current policies, a global warming level of 2.7°C higher than preindustrial levels is projected to occur by the end of the century; in such a case, without serious measures for climate adaptation, Cypriot households at-risk-of-poverty may increase from 14.9% today to 49%, or almost half of all households.
Income losses due to climate change may amount to 54% of future income levels in Cyprus, double the European average. This means that most of future income growth may be offset by the negative effects of climate change, therefore threatening Cyprus’ economic and social development, unless global emissions are limited and more adaptation actions are implemented to cope with more severe weather conditions.
The findings highlight the importance of protecting the Cypriot population from adverse climate change impacts, by scaling up financial and technical support to strengthen climate resilience, especially for the most vulnerable. Cyprus Institute’s Professor Theodoros Zachariadis, who participated in the same research project but not in that particular study, highlighted that: “It is shocking how much climate change can harm the most vulnerable people in our societies if we do not act already now. Policymakers must apply the available knowledge to ensure climate-resilient buildings and neighbourhoods for the most vulnerable households. The costs of such measures are manageable and will protect the Cypriot economy by helping it avoid much higher costs from climate change impacts. Climate policies lead to a more resilient and equitable society and are good economic and social policy for Cyprus.”
The Cyprus Institute published a Policy Brief on the topic, which can be found here.
The full scientific paper can be found here: Schleypen, J. R., Saeed, F., Zimmer, A., & Brück, T. (2026). Compound dry-and-hot extremes exacerbate income inequality and poverty in Europe. Global Environmental Change, 97, 103106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103106.
