This year’s November has brought alarming confirmation of the climate trends projected in a study by the Cyprus Institute. The island experienced exceptionally warm conditions, with temperatures 3.8°C above the 1991-2020 average – making it the second-warmest November on record, trailing only November 2010 (+4.4°C anomaly).

 

The Drought Persists: Perhaps more concerning is the water situation. According to Water Development Department data, dam inflows in November 2025 reached only 18% of the 2015-2025 average – part of an alarming three-year decline. Since 2023, Cyprus has recorded some of the lowest annual water inflows of the past decade, demonstrating the extreme inter-annual variability that makes water resource planning increasingly challenging.

 

The coming months: The Department of Meteorology's seasonal forecast for November-January 2025-26 predicts continued above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation (50-75% of normal), with the southeastern and interior regions most affected by drought conditions.

 

Research Context: These conditions align with projections from the study by our researchers at CARE-C published in Environmental Research Communications (Lazoglou et al., 2024). Our research shows that Cyprus has experienced statistically significant temperature increases of 0.4-0.6°C per decade (1981-2018), and autumn precipitation has declined significantly – by up to 10 mm per decade. Looking to the future, under high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5), Cyprus could face over 4°C annual warming and 20-30% reduction in annual rainfall by the end of the century.

 

The Bottom Line: November 2025 is not an isolated event – it's part of the broader climate change pattern already affecting Cyprus. The combination of rising temperatures and declining water resources demands urgent attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies for our water, agriculture, and energy sectors.

 

Read the full study: Lazoglou G, Hadjinicolaou P, Sofokleous I, Bruggeman A, Zittis G (2024) Climate change and extremes in the Mediterranean island of Cyprus: from historical trends to future projections. Environ Res Commun 6(9). https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad7927