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Predicting Peace: The Social Cohesion and Reconciliation Index (SCORE) as a Tool for Conflict Transformation

Event Details:

  • Date: Thursday 18th May 2017
  • Time: 16:00 - 17:00
  • Venue: The Cyprus Institute – Guy Ourisson Building, Seminar Room, 1st Floor, Athalassa Campus
  • Speaker: Dr. Alexandros Lordos, Research Director, Centre for Sustainable Peace and Democratic Development and Senior Fellow, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
*The lecture will be in English, the event is open to the public, light refreshments will be served after the talk.

Abstract 
All too often, peacebuilding and development programmes are designed on the basis of limited inputs from a small number of in-country experts or conflict analysis consultants, which provide insufficient data-driven insights to resolve strategic design dilemmas. While conceptual linkages between conflict drivers, programmatic activities and desired outcomes are routinely proposed in everyday peacebuilding practice, these rarely amount to more than untested working hypotheses. Hence, existing assessment approaches are often challenged when it comes to empirically linking potential drivers of conflict with desired peace outcomes, in a way that can help resolve such programmatic dilemmas.

The Social Cohesion and Reconciliation (SCORE) Index was developed by SeeD in partnership with UNDP to address the abovementioned deficits in designing sustainable processes of conflict transformation. As a customisable, flexible and evidence-based predictive instrument, the SCORE Index can be utilized to identify programmatic entry points which are most likely to have a positive impact on peacebuilding outcomes. From this perspective, the SCORE Index speaks to the concerns of the donor community which fund post-conflict peacebuilding projects but are still uncertain about the real efficacy of their investments. By providing evidence-based prioritization, the SCORE Index offers governments, donors and peacebuilding organisations the opportunity to systematically design and test conflict transformation theories of change before sponsoring and endorsing new peace-building programmes. So far, the SCORE Index, has been implemented in Cyprus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Nepal, Ukraine, Liberia and Moldova.

About the Speaker
e fioriniAlexandros Lordos is the Research Director of the Centre for Sustainable Peace and Democratic Development (SeeD). In this capacity, he has led the development of the Social Cohesion and Reconciliation (SCORE) Index in partnership with UNDP. The SCORE has been designed to assess social cohesion challenges in conflict-affected societies, with a view to enhancing the effectiveness of the UN and major development organizations in preventing conflict. Specifically, the SCORE Index, under the leadership of Dr. Lordos, has been implemented so far in Cyprus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Nepal, Ukraine, Liberia and Moldova. Additionally, Dr. Lordos has been advising the European and Arab Region bureaus of UNDP on ways to assess social cohesion in conflict affected countries with a view to enhancing programmatic effectiveness. Dr. Lordos holds a PhD in Clinical Psychology, during which he investigated issues related to youth violence and its prevention. Dr. Lordos is also a Senior Fellow of the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative at Harvard University, where he is collaborating with colleagues to develop novel assessment methods in support of efforts to prevent violent extremism.

Contact: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

This event is part of the CyI Colloquium Series.  View all CyI events.

  1. August 2016
  2. September 2016
For the initial monitoring of the building the SUI CyI research team installed a weather station on the roof, placed sensors inside the building and performed a thermal comfort assessment survey.

1. Climate data monitoring

Exterior
A Vantage Pro2 weather station was placed on the building roof to collect data from the SUI area. Regularly updated information about the climatic conditions could be found on the station webpage: http://www.weatherlink.com/user/suitepakcy/. The weather station base was designed and installed by the CyI technical equipment development team.

Interior
Twelve (12) HOBO data-loggers were placed in the building, for collecting temperature, humidity and light data. The data are collected every 30 minutes and will be elaborated with the HOBOware software.

2. Thermal comfort assessment questionnaire

A survey on occupant comfort satisfaction with the indoor environment in summer was conducted. The questionnaire was based on templates proposed by the HSE (http://www.hse.gov.uk/temperature/index.htm). A third of the total employees were asked and complementary measurements were made using a Heat Stress WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) Meter, both for the indoor and the outdoor climatic conditions at the time of the survey.

Images below, from left to right:
Left: The Vantage Pro2 weather station
Middle: HOBO data logger placed in the working place – 1st floor
Right: Completed questionnaire (first page) – Ground floor.

1. Thermal imaging

Thermal images were taken using a T440 Flir thermal camera in order to find missing, damaged, or inadequate insulation, building envelope air leaks, moisture intrusion and other problems. Also, the main sources of radiant temperature were determined.

2. HOBO sensors data collection and analysis

The temperature, humidity, air movement and dew point data from the HOBO sensors were collected and analysed. The mean predicted vote (PMV) was calculated using the CBE Thermal Comfort Tool (http://comfort.cbe.berkeley.edu/EN). In all the spaces under monitoring the people are expected to be in thermal comfort, since all values are within the thermal comfort range of -0.7

Images below, from left to right:
Left: A thermal image from the mezzanine
Right: Graph. Thermal Comfort PMV

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